With the Trade Deadline Looming, What Will Kyle Dubas and the Penguins Do?

What is Penguins GM Kyle Dubas supposed to do?

The Penguins were coming off of a miserable homestand, and the national pundits were sensing that a firesale was on the horizon in Pittsburgh.

Then the team goes out west to play the Los Angeles Kings, one of the NHL’s better teams, and promptly defeats them 5-1 in convincing fashion.

This was one of the Penguins best games of the season.  Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby were flying.  Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang looked like the players the front office envisioned they would be, and the goaltending was solid.

If those elements were to remain consistent, you might be looking at a Penguins team returning to the post season for the first time since 2022.  

But, the Penguins have been anything but consistent this year.

Maybe Tristan Jarry being off the roster has made that big of an impact already.  I’m half kidding, but seriously, teams play differently in front of goaltenders that are as fragile as Jarry.

The Penguins might go on a run here,  which might put Kyle Dubas at the crossroads of “Fire Sale Lane” and “Keep It Together Blvd” come the NHL trade deadline.

But maybe theres a side alley he can go down?

The Penguins, as it stands now, are 4 points out of a playoff spot.  Sure they’ve played a few more games than the teams around them, but they also have one of the NHL’s easiest remaining schedules.

They’re also 7 points from the basement of the Eastern Conference.  So in reality, this could resolve itself if the Penguins bottom out on this west coast swing. But what if they don’t?  

The Kings were by far the best team they’ll face out west.  The next 3 games are against the Ducks, Kraken, and Sharks.  Three teams on the outside of the Western Conference playoff picture looking in.

They could, in theory, find themselves close to a playoff spot before the Four Nations Faceoff. What then?  Does Kyle Dubs tell Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, sorry, we’re pulling the plug on the season?  I highly doubt that's a conversation any of them want to have.

Make no mistake about it, the Penguins are certainly not Stanley Cup contenders.  At best, they can sneak into a wild card spot, and get shown the door a week or so later. But with Crosby and Malkin on their roster, they at least have to, somewhat, try to make the playoffs don’t they?

The question then becomes, can they do that while still selling at the trade deadline? Personally, I think they can.  

Crosby and Malkin are the only two untouchables, everyone else could move at the right price.  The only way Dubas could torpedo their playoff hopes is by selling off Marcus Pettersson, Erik Karlsson, and maybe someone like Rickard Rakell or Kris Letang.  

Sure, that looks like a firesale.

Is that realistic though? 

The Penguins would be lucky to find a trade partner willing to take at least part of Karlsson’s salary off their books.

Rickard Rakell is a good player at a good price, under control for the next few years.  The return would have to be overwhelming to move him.

Kris Letang could fetch a good return from a contender looking for a piece, but he has a full no-movement clause.  Dubas would need to find a willing dance partner, and then get Letang to agree to dance.

Unless any of those less-than-likely scenarios come to fruition, you are most likely looking at losing Marcus Pettersson and maybe a role player or two.

Pettersson has been better as of late, but overall he has underperformed this season, you can live without him in your lineup. Are the Penguins a worse hockey team without Pettersson?  Yes.  Are the Penguins so much worse that they’re more likely a draft lottery team than a playoff team? Probably not.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that Kyle Dubas stays put, trades Pettersson, maybe one other role player, and lets the chips fall where they may the rest of the season. Really, what else can he do? 

Unless he gets overwhelming offers for those upper tier players, I think he can avoid that uncomfortable conversation with the two franchise icons.

If the Penguins keep playing the way they did on Monday, I think they’ll at least sniff the post season again, all while having exchanged Pettersson for some draft capital and prospects.

Plus they’ll have made it a little bit further through this mini-rebuild without having to tear it down to the studs. In my opinion, that's the best case scenario for the Penguins.  Here’s hoping they can do it.